ACC, Big Ten highlight championship games
Heading into the final big weekend of the 2015 college football season, Playoff spots and bowl pairings are on the line and the coaching carousel is speeding up.
Let’s take a glimpse at what the new coaches officially announced so far are inheriting.
Scott Frost, Oregon (OC) to Central Florida
On the cusp, Frost is inheriting an 0-12 football team that has become a social media joke this season. But in reality, the cupboard is not bare. The Knights replaced almost its entire defense in 2015 and three star receivers, Breshad Perriman, J.J. Worton and Rannell Hall, from last season. The entire secondary had to be replaced because Jacoby Glenn left for the NFL with two years of eligibility left. Frost has a talented young squad to work with in Orlando and quarterback Justin Holman had some injuries this year but will return as a senior and has some mobility to run the Frost offense. Keep an eye on what Frost adds to his backfield this offseason and remember freshman receiver Tre’Quan Smith, who has been a bright spot this year along with sophomore defensive lineman Jamiyus Pittman.
Nick Rolovich, Nevada (OC) to Hawaii
Rolovich returns to the islands where he played in 2000-01 and coached from 2008-11. In the last four years under Norm Chow, the Warriors never won more than four games and went 10-36. This is a tall task for Rolovich but if he wants to have a run-based offense like he had at Nevada, Paul Harris returning for his senior season will be a good place to start. After the Max Wittek experiment failed, Ikaika Woolsey regained the starting quarterback job and will be back. Hawaii also returns all of its targets in the passing game led by Devan Stubblefield, Marcus Kemp and Dylan Collie.
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Matt Campbell, Toledo to Iowa State
For a team that finished 3-9, Campbell is inheriting a good young squad. He also reunites with former Toledo RB coach Lou Ayeni, who molded Kareem Hunt with the Rockets and now coaches true freshman Mike Warren for the Cyclones. That’s a good starting point for Campbell’s offense that will also inherit junior-to-be Joel Lanning at quarterback, who has flashed playmaking ability. Campbell specializes in the offensive line and he’ll have to replace four starters up front but returning left tackle Jake Campos is a good one. Allen Lazard and D’Vario Montgomery gives the Cyclones two big receivers to work with too.
D.J. Durkin, Michigan (DC) to Maryland
Durkin did a great job as Florida’s interim head coach last year and now gets in charge of his program for the first time. Recruiting is going to be really important for him as will who he brings on staff on the offensive side of the ball. Durkin has coordinated or been a part of great defenses everywhere he’s been. Maryland should be no different but the Terps talent is dwindling with a senior-laden defense and Yannick Ngakoue saying he’s leaving early for the NFL. Quinton Jefferson could leave early as well. Durkin will get middle linebacker Abner Logan back though, who missed this season with injury. On offense, quarterbacks Caleb Rowe and Perry Hills return but Durkin could look for an upgrade at the position in the offseason. Skilled receivers also return but the backfield and offensive line will have lots of holes.
Mike Norvell, Arizona State (OC) to Memphis
Memphis ended up getting a fantastic football coach and play-caller but tame the expectations for a first-time head coach to just keep the Memphis success rolling right away. Norvell can keep the program in the upward trajectory that Justin Fuente put it on but he has to start by convincing quarterback Paxton Lynch to return and Lynch should want to play for Norvell. The entire backfield will return along with Anthony Miller and Phil Mayhue at receiver but Tevin Jones and Mose Frazier will move on as well as left tackle Taylor Fallin. On defense, the Tigers have to get better and there’s some pieces to build around like pass rusher Jackson Dillon but Norvell will lose his leader in the secondary, Reggis Ball, and the secondary has to improve.
Mark Richt, Georgia to Miami
This is a great homecoming for Richt and he’s inheriting a talented roster that needs a fresh start and new leadership. Richt will be a perfect example to the players both as a competitor on-the-field and a person off-the-field. If all of the Miami underclassmen return, this could be a quick turnaround job with Richt coaching Brad Kaaya, having joe Yearby and Mark Walton in the backfield and Stacy Coley and the rest of the receiver corps and even Standish Dobard as a big tight end. On defense, Miami might be starting over in the secondary if some junios declare but either way will lose both starting safeties but the rest of the defense is young. Even with some embarrassing losses, this was still an 8-4 football team that returns a lot.
Justin Fuente, Memphis to Virginia Tech
The Hokies have some key NFL Draft-eligible players like Kendall Fuller, Brandon Facyson, Ken Ekanem and Bucky Hodges but if Fuente can keep them around, that would be a huge win as was keeping Bud Foster on staff. The Hokies will have to rebuild the defensive line with the departures of Dadi Nicolas, Luther Maddy and Corey Marshall but Nigel Williams looks ready to be a bigger contributor and the secondary could be really good again and Andrew Motuapuaka returns as the leader at middle linebacker. Offense though is Fuente’s forte and with quarterback Dwayne Lawson in his system, it could be a very good one. Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips will return while Fuente recruits depth at the skill positions and the backfield will be loaded with Trey Edmunds and Travon McMillian back and Marshawn Williams and Shai McKenzie returning from injury.
Week 14’s Key Games
MAC Championship Game: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois – These two will meet for the MAC title for the third straight year for the rubber match. This has all the makings of a great matchup with Bowling Green’s offense against NIU’s defense but the Huskies are likely going to start true freshman walk-on Tommy Fiedler at quarterback and that could be the difference. Fiedler was the fifth quarterback back in the spring. My Pick: Bowling Green 34, Northern Illinois 24
Matchups to watch:
-Bowling Green WR Roger Lewis vs. NIU CB Shawun Lurry/Paris Logan
-NIU WR Kenny Golladay vs. Bowling Green CB Alfonso Mack/Clint Stephens
-Bowling Green RB Travis Greene/Fred Coppet vs. NIU LB Boomer Mays
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Williams Jackson III leads the Cougars defense. |
American Athletic Championship Game: #22 Temple at #19 Houston – These are the AAC’s two most complete teams with completely different styles of play. Temple will want to control the clock while Houston will go up-tempo and the Owls will be physical and strong on defense while the Cougars will rally to the ball and create takeaways. Ultimately, I think Houston has too much speed and explosiveness on the field. My Pick: Houston 30, Temple 23
Matchups to watch:
-Temple WR Robby Anderson vs. Houston CB William Jackson III
-Houston QB Greg Ward, Jr. vs. Temple LB Tyler Matakevich
-Temple RB Jahad Thomas vs. Houston LB Elandon Roberts
-Houston WR Steven Dunbar vs. Temple CB Tavon Young
Conference-USA Championship Game: Southern Miss at Western Kentucky – I would’ve liked to see a Western Kentucky-Louisiana Tech rematch but the Golden Eagles deserve a lot of credit for taking down LA Tech last week and being the least-talked about 9-win team. Southern Miss has been scoring 41.7 points per game so there is going to be some points scored in this one. Nick Mullens has been really good in his second year starting in the Todd Monken system. My Pick: Southern Miss 45, Western Kentucky 42
Matchups to watch:
-WKU WR Taywan Taylor vs. Southern Miss CB Kalan Reed
-Southern Miss WR Michael Thomas vs. WKU CB Prince Charles Iworah
-Southern Miss RB Jalen Richard vs. WKU LB Nick Holt
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Ragland and the 'Bama 'D' have been dominant. |
SEC Championship Game: #18 Florida vs. #2 Alabama – This is a complete mismatch with Florida’s offensive line against Alabama’s defensive line but the Gators do have the best defense that Alabama will face all year. Florida has to keep the ball on offense longer so the defense won’t get as worn down late in the game if it’s close. Florida has nothing to lose so expect Treon Harris using his legs a lot more because if he does get banged up, he’s got time to recover for the bowl game. The two true freshmen receivers Calvin Ridley and Antonio Callaway are both exciting to watch and there’s NFL players all over the field on defense. My Pick: Alabama 27, Florida 10
Matchups to watch:
-Florida O-Line vs. Alabama D-Line & Alabama O-Line vs. Florida D-Line
-Alabama RB Derrick Henry vs. Florida LB Antonio Morrison/Jarrad Davis
-Alabama WR Calvin Ridley vs. Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves III/Jalen Tabor
-Florida WR Antonio Callaway vs. Alabama CB Cyrus Jones/Marlon Humphrey
-Florida QB Treon Harris/RB Kelvin Taylor vs. Alabama LB Reggie Ragland
-Alabama TE O.J. Howard vs. Florida S Keanu Neal
Mountain West Championship Game: Air Force at San Diego State – San Diego State is handing the offense to redshirt freshman Christian Chapman after quarterback Maxwell Smith tore his ACL last week. Chapman though will be handing the offense to star running back Donnel Pumphrey. This is going to be the quickest of all the conference championship games because of these two run-dominant defenses. My Pick: San Diego State 35, Air Force 21
Matchups to watch:
-San Diego State RB Donnel Pumphrey vs. Air Force LB Connor Healy/S Weston Steelhammer
-San Diego State OG Darrell Greene vs. Air Force DE Alex Hansen
-Air Force WR Jalen Robinette vs. San Diego State CB Damontae Kazee/J.J. Whittaker
-Air Force QB Karson Roberts, FB Jacobi Owens vs. San Diego State LB Jake Fely/Calvin Munson
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Kessler and the Trojans lost their first game vs. Stanford |
Pac-12 Championship Game: #20 USC vs. #7 Stanford – This has become a great series with the last six games being decided by ten points or less. Stanford won 41-31 back in September but Christian McCaffrey has become a national star since then and USC has made a coaching change and an offensive change with Justin Davis and Ronald Jones taking over the running game. The Trojans have also been depleted by injuries but the replacements have settled in well in recent weeks. It’s the Pac-12’s best third down offense against the best third down defense even though USC is without Cameron Smith and Lamar Dawson at linebacker. Expect Stanford to out physical USC at the line-of-scrimmage but I’m leaning with the Trojans making enough big plays through Jones and JuJu Smith-Schuster while Cody Kessler leads his team to the Rose Bowl. My Pick: USC 34, Stanford 31
Matchups to watch:
-Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey vs. USC LB Su’a Cravens
-Stanford WR Devon Cajuste/Michael Rector vs. USC CB Adoree’ Jackson/Iman Marshall
-USC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Stanford CB Alijah Holder
-USC RB Justin Davis/Ronald Jones vs. Stanford LB Blake Martinez
Big Ten Championship Game: #5 Michigan State at #4 Iowa – Michigan State has been on this stage before and Iowa hasn’t so how will the Hawkeyes respond? C.J. Beathard has been one of the most fun quarterbacks to watch this year and is a difference maker and a playmaker. But in the clutch, Connor Cook has proven his worth in the past but how healthy is his shoulder? The battle in the trenches is going to be a good on both sides of the ball. This is more of an even matchup than people think. My Pick: Michigan State 24, Iowa 20
Matchups to watch:
-Michigan State WR Aaron Burbridge vs. Iowa CB Desmond King
-Iowa OC Austin Blythe vs. Michigan State DT Malik McDowell
-Michigan State RBs vs. Iowa LB Josey Jewell
-Iowa RBs vs. Michigan State LB Riley Bullough
-Iowa TE George Kittle/Henry Krieger-Coble vs. Michigan State S Demetrious Cox
-Iowa WR Tevaun Smith vs. Michigan State CB Arjen Colquhoun/Darian Hicks
-Michigan State OG Donavon Clark vs. Iowa DT Jaleel Johnson
ACC Championship Game: #10 North Carolina vs. #1 Clemson – This will be Dabo Swinney’s 100th career game as a head coach and it’s a big one as he can lead his team to the national championship. If North Carolina stops the running game of Wayne Gallman and makes this game all about Deshaun Watson, the Tar Heels will have a chance but injuries in the secondary could be a concern. The Tar Heels offensive line will also face its biggest test with Clemson’s front and the receivers need to get separation from the Tigers skilled secondary. Could a special teams return be the difference in this game? Ryan Switzer is dangerous. My Pick: Clemson 35, North Carolina 30
Matchups to watch:
-UNC OT Bentley Spain/Jon Heck vs. Clemson DE Shaq Lawson/Kevin Dodd
-UNC QB Marquise Williams/RB Elijah Hood/T.J. Logan vs. Clemson LB B.J. Goodson
-UNC WR Quinshad Davis vs. Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
-Clemson WR Artavis Scott/Charone Peake vs. UNC CB Des Lawrence/M.J. Stewart
-UNC OG Landon Turner vs. Clemson DT Carlos Watkins
Texas at #12 Baylor – Baylor has to refocus and be motivated to play after last week’s dreary loss at TCU. Texas meanwhile has nothing to play for either but state and program pride. That should be enough for a Texas team that gave Baylor some trouble last year defensively but the Horns have to take care of the ball. My Pick: Baylor 35, Texas 24
Matchups to watch:
-Baylor WR Corey Coleman vs. Texas CB Duke Thomas
-Baylor OC Kyle Fuller vs. Texas DT Hassan Ridgeway
-Texas OT Connor William vs. Baylor DE Shawn Oakman
-Texas WR John Burt vs. Texas CB Xavien Howard
-Texas RB Chris Warren/Johnathan Gray vs. Baylor LB Taylor Young
West Virginia at Kansas State – After learning that Kansas State will go to a bowl game win-or-lose, that took some pressure off the Wildcats so they can play more free. But it could also let them relax enough or West Virginia to take advantage. Manhattan is a tough place to play but defense travels and if Skyler Howard uses his legs like he did last week, the Mountaineers will win. My Pick: West Virginia 30, Kansas State 20.
Matchups to watch:
-WVU WR Shelton Gibson vs. KSU CB Morgan Burns
-KSU QB Joe Hubener vs. WVU LB Nick Kwiatkoski/S K.J. Dillon
-WVU RB Wendell Smallwood vs. KSU LB Elijah Lee/Will Davis
Appalachian State at South Alabama – No one’s talking about them but the Appalachian State Mountaineers are 9-2. Meanwhile, South Alabama has to win to get bowl eligible or the Jags will be staying home. Georgia State is another Sun Belt team that can get into a bowl game with a win against Georgia Southern but this matchup should be more interesting. The South Alabama secondary can make some plays if they slow down Marcus Cox and force Taylor Lamb to win with his arm. Lamb, though, is a very underrated quarterback. My Pick: Appalachian State 31, South Alabama 24
Matchups to watch:
-South Alabama TE Gerald Everett vs. App State S Doug Middleton
-South Alabama OT Chris May vs. App State DE Ronald Blair
-South Alabama WR Danny Woodson vs. App State CB Latrell Gibbs
-App State RB Marcus Cox vs. South Alabama LB Blake Dees
College Football Playoff
Current Committee Top 4:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
My Playoff:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oklahoma
I’ll be really disappointed that Ohio State won’t be in the College Football Playoff. Not because of the brand getting snubbed, but because I truly do believe it’s one of the best four teams. But the Playoff kept the integrity of the regular season making every game matter. The fact is, that Ohio State loss to Michigan State mattered more than anything in the end if the Spartans are in the field of four and the Buckeyes are not. Ohio State had its chance and didn’t finish.
Given my prediction of Michigan State over Iowa, I think you could justify putting the Spartans as the No. 3 seed with the extra data point and extra win in the championship game while Oklahoma was idle. Even if it’s Iowa representing the Big Ten, I think the Hawkeyes’ resume could send them up to No. 3 while the eye test may suggest Oklahoma is the better team. That will be an interesting vote in the committee’s meeting.
If the Sooners were to be bumped from No. 3 to No. 4, they might start getting nervous. TCU did not just drop from No. 3 to No. 6 last year. TCU dropped steadily from 3 to 4 to 5 to 6 as the committee processed its thoughts and compared resumes. If Stanford beats USC resoundingly, there may be some that lean towards Stanford over Oklahoma as the No. 4 seed and the Big 12 will be left out again. I don’t see it happening but don’t rule it out. For the comfort of Oklahoma and hopes of Ohio State, it would be best for Stanford to lose or of course Clemson or Alabama being upset as well.
If North Carolina were to beat Clemson, that debate is interesting. The committee should consider leaving the Tar Heels out because of their schedule and the two FCS wins. I know that’s not North Carolina’s fault to have two FCS teams on the schedule this year but sometimes in life, you’re stuck with the hand you’re dealt. The committee cannot emphasize non-conference schedules and then put a North Carolina with two FCS teams on that non-conference slate in the field of four.
So I would personally take Ohio State over North Carolina. Could it also help Ohio State if Iowa were to beat Michigan State? Perhaps the committee would want to avoid a Michigan State-Ohio State rematch in the national championship game but would consider the Buckeyes more if it’s a potential matchup with Iowa since those two teams did not meet this year.
In the case of Alabama and the SEC, it’s clear that the Tide are the league’s only hope for a Playoff bid. If Florida beats Alabama, the SEC will be left out and if Stanford also loses, Ohio State should slide in and it could look like: 1. Clemson 2. Oklahoma (or Big Ten champ) 3. Big Ten champ (or Oklahoma) 4. Ohio State.
My Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan State
4. Ohio State
5. Oklahoma
6. Iowa
7. Stanford
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida State
10. TCU
11. Baylor
12. Oregon
13. North Carolina
14. Northwestern
15. Oklahoma State
16. Michigan
17. Florida
18. Houston
19. USC
20. Ole Miss
21. UCLA
22. LSU
23. Temple
24. Utah
25. Georgia
Last Week’s Picks Recap
Week 13: 22-11 | Overall: 169-83 (.671)
Wins:
Washington 34-31 (Result: 45-10)
Iowa 27-17 (Result: Iowa 28-20)
Oregon 52-28 (Result: Oregon 52-42)
Tulsa 34-24 (Result: Tulsa 45-34)
Cincinnati 38-24 (Result: Cincinnati 19-16)
Indiana 35-28 (Result: Indiana 54-36)
Ohio State 17-13 (Result: Ohio State 42-13)
Clemson 34-13 (Result: Clemson 37-32)
Virginia Tech 27-21 (Result: Virginia Tech 23-20)
Georgia 34-24 (Result: Georgia 13-7)
Louisville 35-27 (Result: Louisville 38-24)
Northwestern 20-17 (Result: Northwestern 24-14)
Michigan State 17-10 (Result: Michigan State 55-16)
North Carolina 38-24 (Result: North Carolina 45-34)
Alabama 38-20 (Result: Alabama 29-13)
Arkansas State 42-30 (Result: Arkansas State 52-28)
Tennessee 24-13 (Result: Tennessee 53-28)
Temple 24-17 (Result: Temple 27-3)
Ole Miss 31-27 (Result: Ole Miss 38-27)
LSU 31-24 (Result: LSU 19-7)
Stanford 31-20 (Result: Stanford 38-36)
Oklahoma 41-27 (Result: Oklahoma 58-23)
Losses:
Marshall 48-42 (Western Kentucky 49-28)
Navy 28-24 (Result: Houston 52-31)
Toledo 31-24 (Result: Western Michigan 35-30)
Missouri 27-24 (Result: Arkansas 28-3)
Baylor 52-42 (Result: TCU 28-21)
Louisiana Tech 38-31 (Result: Southern Miss 58-24)
Minnesota 27-24 (Result: Wisconsin 31-21)
UCLA 28-17 (Result: USC 40-21)
Florida 23-21 (Result: Florida State 27-2)
Arizona State 35-31 (Result: California 48-46)
Louisiana-Monroe 27-21 (Result: Hawaii 28-26)