LSU-'Bama showdown: Let the Playoff begin
FOUR DOWNS
1. Block party. Lost in the craziness of Miami’s special teams play over Duke to ‘win’ the game was the fact that there were 10 failed extra point attempts, nine of which were blocked. It was an epidemic last Saturday. It began with Penn State having its first two extra points blocked by Illinois. Then, through the rest of the day, NC State had two blocked by Clemson, but returned the favor by blocking one of Clemson’s. Florida, Tulane, Nebraska and Purdue all each had an extra point blocked while Akron missed one.
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2. Welcome to the Winners Club, New Mexico State and North Texas. The Aggies beat Idaho on a miraculous interception in overtime and the Mean Green used a fourth quarter comeback to beat UTSA for their first win of the year. That leaves UCF (0-9) and Kansas (0-8) as the only winless teams.
3. Alabama state champs? Ole Miss says they are. The Rebels have beaten Alabama and Auburn now in the same season for the first time since 2003, and for the first time ever, won both games on the road. And, let’s not forget that Auburn did beat Jacksonville State, so by transitive property, Ole Miss beat the best FCS team in the state of Alabama, too.
4. The College Football Playoff rankings are out and once again it gives us a Top four matchup to start. Last year it was Auburn and Ole Miss and now it’s LSU and Alabama. The Playoff is just getting started.
Fun fact: Penn State WR Geno Lewis caught a touchdown pass for the first time in Beaver Stadium last week. That was his seventh career touchdown reception, but the first at home. He had previously caught a touchdown in NFL stadiums, Yankee Stadium and in Ireland before one in Beaver Stadium.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
-We made it to November. The craziness is just beginning. From Florida State-Clemson and LSU-Alabama this weekend to Michigan State-Ohio State and Baylor-TCU, all of the big games are this month. Sit back and enjoy. The Playoff essentially starts now.
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The Gators can clinch the SEC East with a win over Vandy. |
-It’s the SEC’s No. 1 rushing offense vs. the SEC”s No. 1 rushing defense between LSU and Alabama.
-It’s official, Florida is going to win the SEC East. It’ll be official after this week anyway. With the Gators taking care of Georgia last week, it just needs to win one of the two remaining games against Vanderbilt and Missouri. The Gators host a struggling Vandy this week. Don’t be surprised if the Vanderbilt defense plays well, but scoring against Florida will be difficult.
-Deciding the ACC Coastal? Nothing changed for Duke after the last week’s controversial loss to Miami. The Blue Devils still control their own destiny as they head to Chapel Hill this weekend. The Tar Heels are undefeated in league play and the winner in this game will hold the tiebreaker.
-Notre Dame needs to be on upset alert on the road at Pittsburgh. After a physical and emotional win over Temple on the road, the Fighting Irish now head to the other side of the Keystone State where Pat Narduzzi has a stingy defense and an efficient offense. Notre Dame can’t overlook the Panthers.
-The two American Athletic frontrunners, Memphis and Houston both need to be alert at home this weekend. Memphis hosts a 6-1 Navy squad and the Keenan Reynolds-led option offense while Houston hosts Cincinnati. Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel went 15-for-15 passing for 319 yards and five touchdowns last week while the Bearcats had 726 total yards.
-Quietly, Penn State has come back into the Big Ten conversation, but all three remaining opponents are ranked in the top 21, beginning with Northwestern this weekend. Then the Nittany Lions face Michigan and Michigan State. With the way the defense has been playing, including a 39-0 shutout of Illinois last week, and Christian Hackenberg not throwing an interception in his last six games, Penn State could be primed for an upset or two in the Big Ten, or better yet, assert themselves as the league’s third best team behind the Buckeyes and Spartans.
-Is Kentucky reeling? After being outscored 94-37 the last two games and on a three game skid after starting the year 4-1, the Wildcats have to have last year’s six game losing streak to finish the year in the back of their minds. Luckily, that same thing can’t happen again this year because of Charlotte being on the remaining schedule, but Kentucky could really help its postseason chances by beating Georgia this week, a team that’s also seemingly reeling.
 Maguire beat Clemson in '14, but will he start Saturday? |
-Starting Sean Maguire? Jimbo Fisher won’t say who the starting quarterback will be against Clemson, but Maguire started last week vs. Syracuse and threw for more than 300 yards against the Tigers last year. Maguire runs Fisher’s system better than Everett Golson and isn’t afraid to take chances. I think Golson gets the start after a week off, but don’t be surprised if Maguire has earned more playing time this week.
-Auburn is sitting at 4-4 after losing to Ole Miss last week. The Tigers need to beat one of Texas A&M, Georgia or Alabama (assuming they beat Idaho) to make a bowl game. Texas A&M is 4-1 all-time vs. Auburn, but the Aggies haven’t beaten Auburn in Kyle Field since 1911.
-USC is still alive in the Pac-12 south with the 27-21 win over Cal last week. The first place Utes are on the road at Washington, who beat Arizona 49-3 last week and have the Pac-12’s best red zone defense. USC hosts Arizona this week. If the Utes slip up, pencil in the Trojans to the Pac-12 title game.
WEEK 9 GAMES OF THE WEEK (AND MY PICKS)
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#2 LSU at #4 Alabama – Alabama doesn’t stop, but slows down Leonard Fournette just enough and excels in situational defense, while Jake Coker continues his gritty play to lead the Tide. LSU is going to be aggressive and take shots down the field and have success running the ball on the edges away from the strong Alabama middle. My Pick: Alabama 20, LSU 14
Matchups to watch:
-LSU RB Leonard Fournette vs. Alabama LB Reggie Ragland
-Alabama RB Derrick Henry vs. LSU LB Kendell Beckwith
-LSU O-Line vs. Alabama D-Line
-Alabama OT Cam Robinson vs. LSU DE Lewis Neal
-Alabama WR Calvin Ridley vs. LSU CB Kevin Toliver II
-LSU WR Malachi Dupre vs. Alabama CB Cyrus Jones
-Alabama TE O.J. Howard vs. LSU S Jalen Mills
#16 Florida State at #1 Clemson – Clemson’s receivers face their toughest test vs. Jalen Ramsey and Marquez White, but the same goes for FSU’s receivers. Dalvin Cook is the difference maker after resting last week, but when it comes down to it, Clemson’s defensive line will win the trenches and Deshaun Watson will make the plays to win. My Pick: Clemson 34, Florida State 31
Matchups to watch:
-FSU WR Travis Rudolph vs. Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
-Clemson WR Artavis Scott vs. FSU CB Jalen Ramsey
-Clemson OT Mitch Hyatt vs. FSU DE Josh Sweat
-Clemson TE Jordan Leggett vs. FSU S Derwin James
-FSU OT Roderick Johnson vs. Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
 Boykin has been spectacular for TCU this season. |
#8 TCU at #14 Oklahoma State – Oklahoma State cornerback Kevin Peterson shut down sevnth-overall pick Kevin White last year. He won’t shut down Josh Doctson, but will get a key pass breakup. Trevone Boykin will run wild, but TCU won’t be establish the rest of the ground game. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph will excel if he gets protection. My Pick: Oklahoma State 52, TCU 45
Matchups to watch:
-TCU WR Josh Doctson vs. Oklahoma State CB Kevin Peterson
-TCU OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai (if he plays) vs. Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
-Oklahoma State OT Victor Salako vs. TCU DE Mike Tuaua
-Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph vs. TCU FS Derrick Kindred
#5 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh – The Pittsburgh secondary faces its toughest test of the year with Will Fuller, who was held mostly in check by Temple. Does Pitt have enough speed to matchup with the Irish? That will be the difference if the Irish get C.J. Prosise to the edge. My Pick: Notre Dame 27, Pittsburgh 20
Matchups to watch:
-Pitt WR Tyler Boyd vs. Notre Dame CB KeiVarae Russell
-Notre Dame WR Will Fuller vs. Pitt CB Lafayette Pitts
-Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley vs. Pitt DE Rori Blair
Duke at North Carolina – The Blue Devils come out motivated after last week’s Miami debacle but it might not be enough against a much improved Gene Chizik-coordinated defense. The Tar Heels finally put that speed and athleticism advantage to work against Duke and stay unbeaten in the ACC thanks to producing some turnovers. My Pick: North Carolina 31, Duke 24
Matchups to watch:
-UNC OG Landon Turner vs. Duke DT A.J. Wolf
-UNC WR Quinshad Davis vs. Duke CB Breon Borders
-UNC QB Marquise Williams vs. Duke S Jeremy Cash
Minnesota at #3 Ohio State – Minnesota kept it close last year until J.T. Barrett’s long touchdown run. This time there’s no Barrett. But for Minnesota, there’s offensive firepower without David Cobb and Maxx Williams. The Buckeyes front seven will be in control of this game. My Pick: Ohio State 35, Minnesota 17
Matchups to watch:
-Ohio State WR Michael Thomas vs. Minnesota CB Eric Murray
-Ohio State OT Taylor Decker vs. Minnesota DE Theiren Cockran
-Minnesota WR K.J. Maye vs. Ohio State CB Eli Apple
Cincinnati at #25 Houston – This will be the best offense the Cougs face all year. Cincinnati is going to take shots downfield against William Jackson and complete some big plays. Houston’s big gains will be Greg Ward Jr getting loose on the run. This is going to be a high-scoring game. My Pick: Houston 44, Cincinnati 38
Matchups to watch:
-Cincinnati WR Chris Moore vs. Houston CB William Jackson III
-Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. vs. Cincinnati S Zach Edwards
-Cincinnati WR Shaq Washington vs. Houston CB Brandon Wilson
Auburn at #19 Texas A&M – Carl Lawson’s return last week sparked a pass rush but Kyler Murray’s jitterbug skills will escape some sacks and create huge gains on broken plays unless Auburn contains him. These are two of the worst run defending teams in the SEC, so advantage Auburn there with the run game, but Murray’s legs will be the difference. My Pick: Texas A&M 38, Auburn 31
Matchups to watch:
-Texas A&M OT Germain Ifedi vs. Auburn DE Carl Lawson
-Auburn OT Shon Coleman vs. Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett
-Auburn WR Ricardo Louis vs. Texas A&M CB De’Vante Harris
-Texas A&M OC Mike Matthews vs. Auburn DT Montravius Adams
Arkansas at #18 Ole Miss – There’s going to be passing yards in this game. Ole Miss gives up a lot of yards through the air and Arkansas needs to exploit that. Meanwhile, the Hogs aren’t going to stop Ole Miss’ offense this year. No shutout for the Hogs this time. My Pick: Ole Miss 27, Arkansas 23
Matchups to watch:
-Arkansas OG Sebastian Tretola vs. Ole Miss DT Robert Nkemdiche
-Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell vs. Arkansas CB D.J. Dean
-Arkansas OT Denver Kirkland vs. Ole Miss DE Marquis Haynes
Vanderbilt at #10 Florida – This one’s for the SEC East and to determine whether or not Vandy has to win out to try to make a bowl game. Vanderbilt’s defense has played well despite the results but can it score against Florida? The quarterback position has been an awful rotating door. My Pick: Florida 20, Vanderbilt 6
Matchups to watch:
-Vanderbilt OG Jake Bernstein vs. Florida DT Jon Bullard
-Vanderbilt RB Ralph Webb vs. Florida LB Antonio Morrison
-Florida WR Demarcus Robinson vs. Vanderbilt CB Torren McGaster
#7 Michigan State at Nebraska – It’s a must-win game for Nebraska and its postseason hopes. Michigan State cannot afford to stumble in the Big Ten play. I don’t think Nebraska pulls the upset -- with respect lacking for the Huskers you never know -- because the defense simply has not been good enough. My Pick: Michigan State 34, Nebraska 17
Matchups to watch:
-Michigan State OC Jack Allen vs. Nebraska DT Maliek Collins
-Nebraska OT Alex Lewis vs. Michigan State DE Shilique Calhoun
-Michigan State WR Aaron Burbridge vs. Nebraska CB Daniel Davie
#9 Iowa at Indiana – Iowa has given up more than 24 points just once all year. Indiana can put up the points. The Hawkeyes need to jump ahead and force Indiana to play from behind and then limit the Hoosiers’ possessions. My Pick: Iowa 35, Indiana 24
Matchups to watch:
-Indiana OG Dan Feeney vs. Iowa DT Jaleel Johnson
-Indiana WR Simmie Cobbs vs. Iowa CB Desmond King
-Iowa RB Akrum Wadley vs. Indiana LB T.J. Simmons
 Qualls and the Husky defense host the South-leading Utes. |
#12 Utah at Washington – Elijah Qualls is going to cause some issues for the Utah offensive line without starting center Siasi Aiono. Pass rushes for both teams are going to disrupt both of these offenses and whoever converts the most third downs is going to win this one. My Pick: Utah 20, Washington 17
Matchups to watch:
-Washington WR Jaydon Mickens vs. Utah CB Dominique Hatfield
-Washington TE Joshua Perkins vs. Utah S Marcus Williams
-Utah WR Kenneth Scott vs. Washington CB Sidney Jones
Kentucky at Georgia – With the noise mounting in Athens, this is a must-win game for Mark Richt. It’s not a given that Georgia wins this game with the quarterback situation in flux and the running game floundering. Protecting Patrick Towles and giving him a chance to throw the ball will be the key to Kentucky pulling an upset. My Pick: Georgia 33, Kentucky 27
Matchups to watch:
-Georgia RB Sony Michel vs. Kentucky LB Josh Forrest
-Kentucky TE C.J. Conrad vs. Georgia LB Leonard Floyd
-Georgia WR Malcolm Mitchell vs. Kentucky CB Chris Westry
Arizona State at Washington State – Mike Leach’s squad almost took down Stanford last week but missed the game-winning field goal. This a fun game of the Pac-12’s best passing offense against the Pac-12’s most blitzing team. The Sun Devils blitz more than half the time, but does that change against a Washington State team with a lot of weapons that gets the ball out so quickly? My Pick: Arizona State 34, Washington State 31
Matchups to watch:
-ASU RB Demario Richard vs. WSU LB Jeremiah Allison
-ASU OG Christian Westerman vs. WSU DT Destiny Vaeao
-WSU OT Joe Dahl vs. ASU OLB Antonio Longino
-WSU WR Dom Williams vs. ASU CB Lloyd Carrington
Penn State at #21 Northwestern – The Nittany Lions are trying to avenge last year’s embarrassing loss to Northwestern. NU quarterback Clayton Thorson had 303 of the Wildcats' 333 total yards last week. That’s not going to cut it against Penn State’s defense. My Pick: Penn State 27, Northwestern 17
Matchups to watch:
-Northwestern OT Eric Olson vs. Penn State DE Carl Nassib
-Penn State RB Saquon Barkley vs. Northwestern LB Anthony Walker
-Penn State WR Chris Godwin vs. Northwestern CB Nick VanHoose
Navy at #13 Memphis – Memphis got off to a slow start vs. Tulane last week. Another slow start vs. Navy and that could spell trouble with Navy’s ability to control the ball. With Memphis’ next two games at Houston and at Temple, it can’t overlook Keenan Reynolds and Navy. The Midshipmen have played some good defense this year aside from the Notre Dame game, its only loss. My Pick: Memphis 33, Navy 28
Matchups to watch:
-Navy QB Keenan Reynolds vs. Memphis LB Leonard Pegues
-Memphis OT Ryan Mack vs. Navy DE Will Anthony
-Memphis WR Tevin Jones vs. Navy CB Quincy Adams
California at Oregon – Oregon has won six straight over Cal and this would be the year for the Bears to break that streak with Jared Goff and this explosive passing game exploiting a porous Oregon defense. With that said, the Ducks worked some magic last week with Vernon Adams and that trend should continue vs. Cal. My Pick: Oregon 42, Cal 35
Matchups to watch:
-Oregon OT Tyler Johnstone vs. Cal DE Kyle Kragen
-Oregon RB Royce Freeman vs. Cal LB Hardy Nickerson
-Cal OG Jordan Rigsbee vs. Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
Arizona at USC – This series has been really entertaining since Rich Rodriguez took over at Arizona. It’s doubtful that JuJu Smith-Schuster plays for USC after undergoing surgery for a fractured hand last week. Arizona got throttled by Washington last week so which Wildcats team will show up? On that note, which USC team will show up? My Pick: USC 34, Arizona 27
Matchups to watch:
-Arizona WR Cayleb Jones vs. USC CB Adoree’ Jackson
-Arizona QB Anu Solomon vs. USC LB Su’a Cravens
-Arizona RB Nick Wilson vs. USC LB Cameron Smith
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
Current Committee Top 4: 1. Clemson 2. LSU 3. Ohio State 4. Alabama
My Projection: 1. Alabama 2. Ohio State 3. Clemson 4. Notre Dame
With the CFP committee rankings coming out, it appears there are 15 teams that are still in the hunt: Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan State, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Stanford, Utah, Florida, Iowa and Florida State and at this point, we shouldn’t completely rule out Ole Miss yet either, and if Ole Miss can’t be ruled out, then neither can Memphis.
I’m confident in saying right now that two SEC teams won’t be in the Playoff, so I’ll stick with my Alabama projections, thinking that they run the table and LSU beats Ole Miss. The wildcard seems to be Notre Dame since the Irish won’t have a 13th game on the resume, but could have a win over the Pac-12 champion, Stanford. Meanwhile, Baylor, TCU or my preseason Big 12 darkhorse Oklahoma State could be undefeated. Michigan State could also knock off the Buckeyes, which I would 100 predict IF this Spartans team was healthy with all of its original starters. I was all-in on Michigan State before all the injuries.
The biggest gripe I had with the CFP rankings was the discrepancy between Alabama and Florida. There needs to be consistency in what the committee is measuring. With the eye test and talent level, we can think that Alabama is the better team than Florida. However, a one-loss team (Alabama) is ranked higher with all of the undefeateds still remaining and Florida and Notre Dame have much better resumes than Alabama. The Alabama loss can, however, also be attributed to a fluke Ole Miss touchdown. Perhaps LSU and Alabama both being in the initial top four sets up an interesting scenario for a potential two-loss SEC champion Ole Miss, since if the Rebels run the table, they’ll have two top-four wins. No other Playoff contender could claim that.
MY TOP 25
 Jones get another shot at the starting QB job for the unbeaten Buckeyes. |
1. Ohio State (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. LSU (3)
4. Clemson (4)
5. Baylor (5)
6. Michigan State (6)
7. TCU (7)
8. Florida (10)
9. Notre Dame (11)
10. Oklahoma State (13)
11. Iowa (12)
12. Stanford (8)
13. Oklahoma (15)
14. Utah (14)
15. Michigan (9)
16. Florida State (21)
17. UCLA (16)
18. Temple (17)
19. Memphis (18)
20. Ole Miss (19)
21. USC (20)
22. Houston (24)
23. Texas A&M (NR)
24. Mississippi State (NR)
25. North Carolina (NR)
Out: Pittsburgh (22), Duke (23), Toledo (25)
PICKS RECAP
Week 9: 14-4 | Overall: 118-53 (.690)
Wins
North Carolina 27-20 (Result: North Carolina 26-19)
TCU 48-27 (Result: TCU 40-10)
Ole Miss 33-20 (Result: Ole Miss 27-19)
Texas A&M 35-17 (Result: Texas A&M 35-28)
Florida State 28-17 (Result: Florida State 45-21)
USC 42-31 (Result: USC 27-21)
Clemson 35-17 (Result: Clemson 56-41)
Florida 23-16 (Result: Florida 27-3)
Oklahoma State 42-31 (Result: Oklahoma State 70-53)
Houston 24-17 (Result: Houston 34-0)
Michigan 24-13 (Result: Michigan 29-26)
Tennessee 34-20 (Result: Tennessee 52-21)
Notre Dame 28-27 (Result: Notre Dame 24-20)
Stanford 45-21 (Result: Stanford 30-28)
Losses
Arizona State 34-28 (Result: Oregon 61-55)
Boston College 19-17 (Result: Virginia Tech 26-10)
Duke 31-20 (Result: Miami 30-27)
Arizona 30-24 (Result: Washington 49-3)